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Stocks Tumble

U.S. and European stocks tumbled, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index down the most in two months, as the World Bank said the recession will be deeper than previously forecast. Treasuries rose, while oil fell below $67 a barrel and metals slumped.

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. and Alcoa Inc. sank at least 8.9 percent, while BP Plc and Occidental Petroleum Corp. lost more than 3.8 percent amid the biggest retreat in the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 raw materials in almost three weeks. Bank of America Corp. dropped 9.7 percent as two board members resigned. Both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average erased their gains for the year.

“The worries are still out there,” said John Wilson, who helps oversee $120 billion as chief market technician at Morgan Keegan & Co. in Memphis, Tennessee. “Nobody is ready to get the trumpets out and herald the end of the recession.”

The S&P 500 slid 3.1 percent to 893.04 at 4:05 p.m. in New York following last week’s 2.6 percent slump. The Dow average sank 200.72 points, or 2.4 percent, to 8,339.01. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 fell 2.8 percent and the MSCI World Index decreased 2.7 percent. Almost 14 stocks fell for each rising on the New York Stock Exchange, the broadest sell-off since May 13.

Stocks and commodities slid as the World Bank said unemployment and poverty will rise in developing nations and predicted a 2.9 percent contraction in the global economy this year. That compares with a prior estimate of a 1.7 percent decline. Growth is expected to return in 2010 at 2 percent, less than the 2.3 percent forecast about three months ago.

Rebound Pared

While the S&P 500 is still up 32 percent from a 12-year low on March 9, the index has fallen 5.6 percent since June 12. Executives at U.S. companies are taking advantage of the biggest stock-market rally in 71 years to sell their shares at the fastest pace since credit markets started to seize up two years ago. Insiders of S&P 500 companies were net sellers for 14 straight weeks as the market rallied, according to data compiled by InsiderScmaore.com.

The S&P 500 today slid below 900.77, its average level over the past 200 days, in a bearish signal to analysts who study charts to predict market movements.

Nouriel Roubini, the New York University economics professor who predicted the financial crisis, said the global economy may suffer another slump due to higher oil prices and widening budget deficits.

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Lawmakers back a health insurance mandate

A Republican senator with a leading role in the health care debate says Congress is more likely to support requiring individuals to buy health insurance than mandating coverage through employers.

Sen. Chuck Grassley of Iowa says there is nothing wrong with requiring individuals to buy health insurance. He plays down the argument that it's an infringement on individual freedom.

Grassley says that an individual mandate for health coverage doesn't tie coverage to employment.

Grassley says he believes there is bipartisan consensus on the issue. Bills in the House and Senate would require people to purchase insurance if they could afford it.

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Politics puts Insurance regulators in a bind

In May 2005, a coalition of insurance companies hosted a fundraiser for Jim Poolman, the elected insurance commissioner of North Dakota, at a Washington restaurant called the Caucus Room.

Two months later, Poolman helped spearhead the coalition's efforts to change the way life insurance is regulated. The change would alter long-standing prescriptions for how much money insurers must keep in reserve -- a crucial variable that can influence their profits, the premiums they charge consumers and their ability to pay claims.

The initiative, which has been under development ever since, is now entering an advanced stage and is one of the prime items on the agenda as state insurance regulators from across the country gather this weekend in Minneapolis.

At a time when the Obama administration is trying to figure out what role the federal government should play in the regulation of insurers, the move to remake policy presents a case study of the tensions within the current system of state-based regulation.

Although campaign fundraising is standard fare for politicians, the need to engage in it is unusual for financial regulators. They are typically appointed, keeping them at least a step removed from the intersection of money and politics. But in 11 states plus the Virgin Islands, state insurance commissioners must run for office, and some take contributions from the interests they regulate. Through an assembly of state regulators called the National Association of Insurance Commissioners, they can help shape regulatory policy on a national scale.

What's more, insurance regulators routinely move from wielding power over industry to working for the industry. As in other areas of government, the revolving door can give officials an incentive to please the businesses they oversee while they have the power.

"The downside of running for office, being an elected official, is having to raise money. And that constantly opens you up to scrutiny," Poolman said, "because there always could be a perception that there's a self-interest involved with somebody giving you a contribution."

Poolman, who is now an insurance industry consultant, said he supported industry positions when he agreed with them and opposed the industry when he thought it was wrong.

The coalition that helped Poolman raise money in 2005 was created to transform one of the fundamentals of insurance regulation. The amount of money insurers must keep in reserve had long been dictated by a set of standard formulas. In place of the formulas, the coalition wanted regulators to create a system of "principles-based reserving," which would give insurers greater discretion.

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GM May cut 33 state dealers

General Motors Corp. plans to sever ties with 33 dealers in Alabama, a figure that's higher than most neighboring states, a company document shows.

The Detroit-based automaker has not previously disclosed how many dealer affiliations it is seeking to end in Alabama as it moves to pare back its dealership network by as many as 2,300 outlets. The figure was contained in a document released Friday by the U.S. House Committee on Energy and Commerce, which is holding hearings on the cutback plan.

The document doesn't include dealership names, and few Birmingham area dealers targeted for elimination have come forward since they can challenge the automaker's decision. Susan Schein, who owns a Chevrolet dealership in Pelham, and Ward Drennen, who operates the family Buick dealership in Hoover, have said GM wants to sever ties with them.

The 33 targeted dealers in Alabama represents close to one-third of the estimated 120 GM dealers in the state.

Brett McBrayer, president of the Birmingham Association of Auto Dealers, said Friday that he was "shocked" by the number of dealers on GM's list.

"We probably have one of the highest per capita in the country," he said in an interview.

The GM document released.

GM May cut 33 state dealers

General Motors Corp. plans to sever ties with 33 dealers in Alabama, a figure that's higher than most neighboring states, a company document shows.

The Detroit-based automaker has not previously disclosed how many dealer affiliations it is seeking to end in Alabama as it moves to pare back its dealership network by as many as 2,300 outlets. The figure was contained in a document released Friday by the U.S. House Committee on Energy and Commerce, which is holding hearings on the cutback plan.

The document doesn't include dealership names, and few Birmingham area dealers targeted for elimination have come forward since they can challenge the automaker's decision. Susan Schein, who owns a Chevrolet dealership in Pelham, and Ward Drennen, who operates the family Buick dealership in Hoover, have said GM wants to sever ties with them.

The 33 targeted dealers in Alabama represents close to one-third of the estimated 120 GM dealers in the state.

Brett McBrayer, president of the Birmingham Association of Auto Dealers, said Friday that he was "shocked" by the number of dealers on GM's list.

"We probably have one of the highest per capita in the country," he said in an interview.

The GM document released.

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The City of Dreams casino complex opened in Macau last Monday, complete with giant crowds and fireworks. Two scions of the gambling industry in Asia, Lawrence Ho and James Packer, set the rock groove by smashing a guitar each in front of the Hard Rock Hotel.

The new resort is the first major casino opening in almost two years in the former Portuguese colony, since the Venetian Macau launched in August 2007. The City of Dreams sits on the Cotai Strip, a long street of reclaimed land, directly opposite the Venetian, which at 550,000 square feet houses the largest gambling hall in the world.

The City of Dreams features the 420,000-square-foot casino itself, and will ultimately have 175,000 square feet of luxury retail in its shopping mall. At the Hard Rock, tourists can pore over Madonna’s hot pants and bustier; Pink’s guitar; one of Michael Jackson’s silver sequined gloves; the Hong Kong-based singer Jacky Cheung’s scarf, sweater and bow tie; and a yellow fur coat with black trim that Elvis Presley himself once wore.

There’s also a Crown Towers hotel for high rollers, and a Grand Hyatt hotel is scheduled to open at the City of Dreams later this year.

Whereas its competitor, the Venetian, mimicked an existing Las Vegas casino, the City of Dreams offers something new, with a futuristic theme and feel, and a stage built on a lagoon. The complex has a domed theater, called the Bubble, with a multimedia show based on Chinese mythology. The City of Dreams will also house a permanent show by Franco Dragone, the former director of Cirque du Soleil, who helped create Celine Dion’s show in Las Vegas.

The new casino may encourage visitors to go straight to the Cotai Strip instead of the Macau peninsula, the traditional heart of the city. That’s particularly notable if they are coming from Hong Kong, which has a direct ferry service to Taipa Island, next to the strip. Mainland visitors may bus directly to Cotai from the border to see the latest casino.

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The City of Dreams casino complex opened in Macau last Monday, complete with giant crowds and fireworks. Two scions of the gambling industry in Asia, Lawrence Ho and James Packer, set the rock groove by smashing a guitar each in front of the Hard Rock Hotel.

The new resort is the first major casino opening in almost two years in the former Portuguese colony, since the Venetian Macau launched in August 2007. The City of Dreams sits on the Cotai Strip, a long street of reclaimed land, directly opposite the Venetian, which at 550,000 square feet houses the largest gambling hall in the world.

The City of Dreams features the 420,000-square-foot casino itself, and will ultimately have 175,000 square feet of luxury retail in its shopping mall. At the Hard Rock, tourists can pore over Madonna’s hot pants and bustier; Pink’s guitar; one of Michael Jackson’s silver sequined gloves; the Hong Kong-based singer Jacky Cheung’s scarf, sweater and bow tie; and a yellow fur coat with black trim that Elvis Presley himself once wore.

There’s also a Crown Towers hotel for high rollers, and a Grand Hyatt hotel is scheduled to open at the City of Dreams later this year.

Whereas its competitor, the Venetian, mimicked an existing Las Vegas casino, the City of Dreams offers something new, with a futuristic theme and feel, and a stage built on a lagoon. The complex has a domed theater, called the Bubble, with a multimedia show based on Chinese mythology. The City of Dreams will also house a permanent show by Franco Dragone, the former director of Cirque du Soleil, who helped create Celine Dion’s show in Las Vegas.

The new casino may encourage visitors to go straight to the Cotai Strip instead of the Macau peninsula, the traditional heart of the city. That’s particularly notable if they are coming from Hong Kong, which has a direct ferry service to Taipa Island, next to the strip. Mainland visitors may bus directly to Cotai from the border to see the latest casino.

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Unemployment still prevails

Eighteen months into the recession, U.S. workers are still rapidly losing jobs. And they may have to wait years before seeing a full recovery in the labor market.

The government on Friday said the economy lost 345,000 jobs in May, fewer than the number shed in April. The unemployment rate hit 9.4%, the highest since the early 1980s, and is expected to shoot even higher in the coming months.

Tim Foley


The latest employment decline came alongside hope in recent weeks that the economy is ending its free fall. Housing activity is stabilizing, and consumer confidence is turning up.

But a turnaround in the overall economy won't translate into a full turnaround for workers. Most forecasters expect employers to slash more jobs than they're adding at least through the end of the year. The huge job losses may end, but they won't turn into meaningful job gains until sometime in 2010.

What happens to the labor market once the economy is growing again? Some past recessions, especially those with the largest employment declines, saw the job market rebound strongly once the overall economy picked up. But that's not a sure thing. The aftermath of the 2001 recession was dubbed a "jobless recovery" because employers continued shedding workers even as the economy showed robust growth.

Despite indications that the worst monthly job declines are over, the road to recovery will be bumpy for the next year. Employers remain unsettled from a turbulent financial crisis. So many millions of people are out of work that absorbing them back into new jobs will take time. For the summer and fall, an improvement in the economy may not even be evident to most people out searching for jobs. After that, it'll be a long road back to the days of a tight labor market.

Some of the major employment concerns now:

Has the job market been this bad before?

Only a handful of times since the Great Depression. The economy has shed six million jobs since the start of 2008. That's almost one out of every 20 jobs, making the current decline the worst drop in a half century. Unemployment has doubled since the start of the downturn, with 14.5 million people looking for jobs in May. The jobless rate is likely to approach, and maybe even surpass, 10% by year end.

How long will unemployment remain high?

Forecasters expect unemployment to remain elevated at least into 2012. The overall economy is expected to start recovering late this year and into 2010. But employers may be slow to hire workers until they're sure demand for their products and services has rebounded.

What will that mean for paychecks?

Don't expect too many raises. When the economy is weak, employers can keep wages contained because workers find it much harder to secure jobs elsewhere. Companies also see productivity increase as they get more output out of fewer workers. That helps companies restore their profitability.

Many employers have already cut salaries and benefits in addition to jobs. Companies also are cutting workers' hours, instituting furloughs and forced vacations and cutting benefits such as tuition reimbursement.

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Nikkei Gains

Japan's Nikkei average gained 0.9 percent on Tuesday following U.S. manufacturing data that reinforced hopes that demand will stabilise, while automakers such as Toyota and Honda climbed after General Motors' bankruptcy filing removed some uncertainty from the market.

Nomura Real Estate (3231.T) slid 3.6 percent to 1,605 yen after the company said it plans to raise 64 billion yen ($660 million) by offering new shares.

General Motors (GM.N) filed for bankruptcy protection on Monday as the Obama administration took the first steps to try to revive a failed icon of American industry by extending unprecedented federal funding and oversight.

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US Stocks Higher On Manufacturing Data

Strong manufacturing data propelled U.S. stocks higher Monday, though renewed inflation fears continued to chill the bond market.

Investors mostly shrugged off a landmark bankruptcy filing by General Motors, which has been expected for months. The troubled auto maker's share price and market capitalization long ago shriveled to the point that GM doesn't affect major stock indexes much, though its fate is still a factor for U.S. employment and consumer spending.

At 11:30 a.m. EDT, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 204.30 points, or 2.4%, at 8704.63. Its energy components Exxon Mobil and Chevron were up about 3% each, boosted by strong gains in oil and other commodities. Other big winners among the blue chips included Caterpillar, up 5%, and United Technologies, up 4.4%.

The market opened higher and saw its gains accelerate after the Institute of Supply Management said its index of U.S. manufacturing activity rose to 42.8 in May from 40.1 in April. The increase was bigger than analysts expected, though the latest reading was still low enough to signal that the manufacturing sector remains in contraction.

The S&P 500 was up 2.6% to 942.59, on course to set a new closing high for 2009. The gauge is now up more than 4% on the year. The Nasdaq Composite Index was up 2.7%.

Stocks also seemed to benefit on Monday from early-month buying by money managers putting cash to work in June's first trading session. But the market could soon be due for a pullback, especially since bond yields are creeping high enough that they may soon draw buyers' attention away from stocks, said Roger Volz, director of equities at BGC Partners in New York.

"This market move has some real power that could take the S&P to the 1000 area," said Volz. But he added, referring to the yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes: "Once you get to the 3.90% area, you could start to get rate jitters in the stock market."

In recent action, the 10-year note was off 1-16/32, yielding 3.646%. The two year note was down 3/32, yielding 0.970%.

Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, said in a note to clients on Monday that several hedge funds he's been in contact with have begun to short Treasurys more aggressively.

"They've joined other bond vigilantes in recent weeks to push yields higher," said Yardeni. "The ones I met in Connecticut believe that fiscal and monetary policies are out of control. They see huge federal deficits putting a great deal of pressure on the Fed to monetize the debt," by effectively printing money to pay off the Treasury's obligations.

Crude futures were recently up $1.30 at $67.61 a barrel in New York. Traders' hopes for a turnaround in global fuel demand were bolstered by both the ISM report and data showing that China's manufacturing sector grew moderately last month.

Other raw materials traded higher. The broad Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index was up more than 2%.

GM filed for Chapter 11 protection early Monday. The Obama administration is promising that the company can move quickly through reorganization, much like Chrysler, which could exit bankruptcy as soon as Monday. A judge approved the sale of most of Chrysler's assets to alliance partner Fiat.

The car maker will be removed from the Dow along with ailing Citigroup. The companies will be replaced by Cisco Systems and Travelers Co. effective June 8, according to Dow Jones & Co., which owns the average and is also publisher of The Wall Street Journal.

In overseas action, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index jumped to an eight-month high due to uptick in China's manufacturing sector, and most European benchmarks were up by more than 2% in recent trading.

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